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In the US, the Second Wave Is Already Here

If the United States had quick-thinking and efficient leadership, the pandemic would have infected about 100,000 people and killed only a couple thousand. That’s the experience of South Korea, times seven to account for the difference in population.

If the United States had overwhelmed but reasonably sensible leadership, the coronavirus pandemic would have racked up somewhere near a million infections at this point and killed about 36,000 people. That’s what would have happened here if we’d had a German-style response.

Instead, as of the beginning of July, the infection rate in the United States is a world-leading 2.6 million and the death toll has topped 126,000. There are countries with worse death rates per million people, but with a couple exceptions they’re either small (like Belgium) or presided over by leaders (like Boris Johnson in the UK) as idiotic as ours.

That is tragic enough. But now comes Act Two.

If the United States had practically any administrative team other than the Trump-Pence clown show, it would have at least flattened the curve at this point, no matter how many infections and deaths had occurred during the first wave of the outbreak. Americans would then be cautiously enjoying their summers, bracing for a second wave of infections that most epidemiologists have predicted for the fall.

Instead, while Europe and much of Asia are tracking down and containing small pockets of infection that reach at most into three digits, the United States is dealing with its highest daily number of infections yet — over 40,000 a day.

Remember those early statistics about how many more tests South Korea was conducting per day compared to what the United States was doing in a week? We are currently suffering the consequences of that disparity. Every day, the United States is now adding three times the number of infections that South Korea has had during its entire outbreak.

The Trump administration’s response to the threat of a second wave is: why wait?

American Lunacy

Donald Trump doesn’t like masks. He has refused to wear them. He has ignored the advice of health officials, members of his administration, and his congressional enablers. Trump is such an outlier on the mask issue that even Dick Cheney has consented to being photographed wearing facial protection.

Astonishingly, the president said, in an interview with The Wall Street Journal, that some people are wearing masks “to signal disapproval of him.” To the extent that people associate Trump with Death itself or are wearing masks so that they can live long enough to vote the Grim Reaper out of office, the president is right. The pandemic in America has indeed become all about Trump: his appalling ineptitude and sociopathic cruelty.

Masks are just the tip of the iceberg toward which the president is steering Titanic America. Trump was warned multiple times that an indoor campaign rally in the middle of a pandemic was not a good idea. A group of Tulsa citizens and businesses launched a legal effort to stop the event from happening on the grounds that it would only contribute to the ongoing spike in infections. The Oklahoma Supreme Court put the kibosh on the legal challenge.

Trump not only went ahead with the rally last month, he seemed to do everything possible to ensure that it would be a public health hazard. His advance team had eight people who tested positive with the disease. His organizers removed stickers from seats that were designed to maintain a modicum of distance between audience members. In the end, the 6,000 people who showed up were all crowded together like sardine superspreaders. Most followed their leader by not wearing masks.

Tulsa subsequently experienced a new uptick in COVID-19 cases, though it’s not clear how many can be traced back to the rally. That’s because Oklahoma has an inadequate contact tracing system.

Not content to help boost the numbers for the coronavirus in Oklahoma, Trump then went on to Arizona, where he stopped at a megachurch for a rally with student supporters. Such churches have been the epicenters of new outbreaks in Oregon, West Virginia, and Texas. At the Arizona event, neither Trump nor many of his young worshippers wore masks. Trump told them several times that the United States was “at the end of the pandemic.”

Trump has done just about everything to distract Americans from the second wave of infections engulfing us. He has deployed racism (“kung flu”) to defect responsibility. He has studiously avoided the topic of the pandemic. He has claimed that the numbers are up because of more testing (wrong).

Even the Trump administration doesn’t have Trump’s back on this one. The vice president now wears a mask and urges others to do so as well. The health and human services secretary, Alex Azar, is not reassuring in the least: “The window is closing, we have to act, and people as individuals have to act responsibility,” he said recently. “We need to social distance, we need to wear our face coverings where we can’t social distance, particularly in these hot zones.”

Meanwhile, many governors are demonstrating that idiocy is not the monopoly of the president.

Florida’s Republican governor, Ron DeSantis, refuses to mandate the use of masks. Houston’s spike in COVID-19 hospitalizations has maxed out the capacity of the intensive care units at city hospitals. Republican Governor Greg Abbott’s response? He told the hospitals to stop reporting that particular statistic because it was generating negative headlines. Peekaboo: if we close our eyes, the pandemic will magically be over.

Of course, if people didn’t listen to Trump or their death-defying governors and simply stayed home, they could collectively flatten the curve. But no, many Americans have flocked to beaches, bars, churches, and dance clubs. They’ve been egged on by cheerleaders for a fast economic recovery who are either genuinely concerned about unemployment and widespread bankruptcies or fear that Trump can’t win reelection without a rapid rebound.

In some cases, the cheerleaders themselves have become victims of their own heedlessness. The head of Reopen Maryland, Tim Walters, came down with the coronavirus last week. It was not, alas, a Saul-on-the-way-to-Damascus moment: he hasn’t changed his views on reopening, wearing masks, or sharing contact information with government tracers.

Instead of getting the message, too many people are going after the messengers. The Washington Post reports that attacks on public health officials who counsel safe behavior have been particularly intense in Ohio, California, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. In Colorado, according to the executive director of the Colrado Association of Local Public Health Officials, “80 percent of members had reported being threatened and more than that were at risk of termination or lost funding.”

Keep Out Americans

It is any wonder that the European Union, when contemplating the opening of borders to travelers and tourists, decided to continue to ban Americans?

This week, Europe will welcome visitors from around the world. With a few exceptions, those will not be American visitors. Who gets in instead? Rwandans, Tunisians, Uruguayans, Serbians, Moroccans, Japanese, South Koreans. Oh, and just in case you think there’s a North American bias, Canadians are welcome as well. And if China lifts its ban on European visitors, then Chinese will soon be taking their summer holidays in Paris and Rome.

If America manages to get this second wave of infections under control, Europe will reconsider. But why should Europe reconsider?

I’m reminded of those pictures of people you see posted at convenience stores — shoplifters, scam artists, stolen credit card users. Those photos are a reminder to the scofflaws not to return to the scene of the crime. Europe has posted an American flag at the passport control booths at its airports. Americans are the world’s scofflaws.

Too many Americans have proven themselves to be entirely irresponsible when it comes to the health of the community. That goes for too many public officials as well, from mayors to governors to the president himself.

So, it makes sense for the world to keep its distance, not just six feet but an entire ocean if possible. The entire country should be quarantined until we stop electing public health risks to office and, as a citizenry, start acting like adults instead of kindergartners who feel compelled to eat every marshmallow in sight rather than postpone gratification until it’s safe to indulge.

It’s not just America, of course. The virus continues to rage in Brazil, India, and South Africa. The head of the World Health Organization, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, points out that “although many countries have made some progress, globally, the pandemic is actually speeding up. We all want this to be over. We all want to get on with our lives, but the hard reality is that this is not even close to being over.”

In the good old days, like four years ago, the United States for all its flaws would have been at the forefront of addressing this public health emergency.

Let’s face it: we are now the public health emergency.

FPIF, July 1, 2020

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Pushing Rewind on 2016

The two events that put 2016 in the history books — alongside other pivotal years such as 2001, 1989, and 1945 — were, of course, the Brexit vote in the United Kingdom and the election of Donald Trump in the United States. What makes 2016 different, however, is its apparent revocability.

Germany and Japan, after all, didn’t try to restart World War II. Nobody attempted to rebuild the Berlin Wall. And the lives lost on 9/11 can’t be restored.

But last week, both the U.K. and the U.S. took significant steps to hit the rewind button on the momentous events of 2016.

In Washington, former FBI chief James Comey testified before the Senate Intelligence Committee and confirmed what everyone else has known for some time: Donald Trump is a bully, he doesn’t care about constitutional checks and balances, and he lies.

It’s not quite the clear-cut obstruction of justice that impeachment supporters need — and both Trump and his followers have bizarrely interpreted Comey’s testimony as a vindication of the president’s conduct — but pressure is nevertheless growing from groups like MoveOn and politicians like Brad Sherman (D-CA) and Al Green (D-TX) to begin the process.

In the UK, meanwhile, voters went to the polls and delivered a stunning repudiation of the Conservative Party of Theresa May and her hardline stance on withdrawing from the European Union. May had called early elections in the hope of scoring a knockout victory against the Labor Party and strengthening her hand in upcoming negotiations on exiting the EU. Instead, the Conservatives lost their parliamentary majority, and a surging Labor Party under Jeremy Corbyn is leading calls for May to step down.

Those who applaud what happened in the twin votes of 2016 insist that both decisions are effectively irreversible. At most, UK voters can soften their exit from the EU. At best, U.S. voters can force Trump to step down, with his administration continuing under the leadership of Mike Pence.

Repairing the damage done in 2016 has to start somewhere. Don’t, however, fall into the trap of thinking that a technocratic fix — an impeachment process, a kinder and gentler set of negotiations with Brussels — will be enough.

After all, the votes of 2016 weren’t decided by brilliant hacks (by the Russians with “fake news” or by the Trump team with their targeted Facebook campaign). Voters were expressing their very real anger at the status quo represented by Hillary Clinton and Brussels, respectively. Returning to the status quo ante won’t be enough to address the underlying problems.

A Pence Foreign Policy?

Let’s begin with the delicious possibility that Donald Trump resigns or is ousted by Congress. True, it’s hard to imagine Trump throwing in the towel even if his support dwindles to Ivanka and Jared and Melania and Barron. Also, Congress won’t likely take impeachment seriously unless and until the Dems recapture the House in the mid-term elections. Still, a boy can dream.

Yet how quickly dreams can become nightmares. After all, President Mike Pence wouldn’t make the world any safer.

Hady Amr and Steve Feldstein spell it out in The Hill:

Among the Republican establishment, particularly the neoconservative wing, Pence has an impeccable reputation. Many describe him as a “hawk’s hawk.” He was a strong proponent of the Iraq War, has vigorously stood up for a strong military and “American values” and, as vice president, has taken on an informal role as an emissary to NATO and other alliances…

Likewise, Pence’s evangelical Christian faith is central to his identity. He has proudly built up a reputation as one of the most conservative lawmakers in the country and frequently describes himself as “a Christian, a conservative, and a Republican, in that order.” There is a high probability that Pence would explicitly embed religious morals in U.S. foreign policy and push an activist social conservative agenda.

The personally repugnant Donald Trump seems somehow all the more vulgar when standing next to the quieter and more unassuming Pence. But in fact, Trump’s views on the world are less ideologically fixed than Pence’s. Moreover, Trump doesn’t have the congressional chops to get legislation passed. Pence, on the other hand, commands a good deal of respect among conservatives on Capitol Hill.

The current vice president, who once described himself as a decaf Rush Limbaugh during his right-wing radio days, has the ability to unite the Republicans going into 2020. The neocons and the religious right would both happily go back to cohabitating under Pence. Moderate Republicans, lulled by Pence’s soothing tone, would be less likely to bolt the party. Even some Democrats and independents who voted for Trump might decide that Pence’s proximity to the putative presidential outsider qualifies him to continue to “drain the swamp.”

Underscoring Pence’s problematic positions is by no means a plea to go easy on Trump. Perhaps enough mud will fly during the investigations that it will besmirch Pence’s snow-white hair as well. Just don’t fall for the ploy that Claire Underwood is any better than the psychotic Frank.

Softening Brexit

Theresa May is already backpedaling on her bold Brexit promises. She’s promised “to listen to all voices” in her party, though her party has now shrunk after last week’s election. Her promise has less to do with Brexit than with keeping her Conservative party in power.

After all, if Scottish Tories abandon the party over May’s position on Brexit — Scotland overwhelmingly favored staying in the EU — the Conservative Party won’t be able to remain on top. The same holds true for the Democratic Unionist Party from Northern Ireland, the party that May needs to form a ruling coalition. The Irish, too, opposed Brexit, and Northern Ireland may prefer reuniting with the south and retaining EU membership to an arranged marriage with May.

However much May might be reconsidering her approach to the EU, the last election was by no means a referendum on Brexit. The Labor Party, under the EU-ambivalent Corbyn, did not promise to undo the results of the referendum. The only party that pushed hard for the “remain” option, the Liberal Democrats, saw a significant increase in their admittedly small parliamentary faction, while the UK Independence Party, which pushed for Brexit, has lost all representation in parliament.

Corbyn played his poor hand quite well during the campaign. But imagine what he might have achieved with a truly visionary program? Labor may have lost a golden opportunity to position itself as the party to save the UK by pushing not only for another referendum but a reform package for the EU itself.

The negotiations between the UK and EU still boil down to a trade between access to the European market and freedom of movement across the Channel. Theresa May and the hardliners think that they can get the first without the second. But there’s no reason for the EU to play softball.

Brexit the vote was bold. Brexit the agreement may well suffer a death by a thousand cuts. After all, May has to negotiate every potentially controversial step not only with the EU but with both the hardline Euroskeptics within her party and the now emboldened opposition.

As the traffic reporters constantly tells us: expect delays.

Saved by the Bureaucracy

I’ve never been a big fan of red tape. But if an entire system is heading toward a cliff, there’s no better brake than bureaucracy.

In Trumpland, the courts have tied up the noxious Muslim travel ban. The attorneys general of Maryland and DC are now going after the president’s personal sweetheart deals by invoking the emoluments clause. Congress and special counsel Robert Mueller are digging into RussiaGate. The Democrats are showing some backbone — a wee bit of spinal rectitude — on Trump’s legislative forays. Most recently, they nearly blocked Trump’s effort to send $500 million in arms to Saudi Arabia. And nearly 200 congressional Dems have followed the lead of DC and Maryland by filing suit against the president using the same “emoluments” argument.

It’s not just the “resistance” that is staying Trump’s hand. It’s also the sheer incompetence of all the president’s men — and they’re mostly men — in navigating the bureaucracy. Many of Trump’s appointees are actively hostile to administration, any administration. Guess what: That makes it kind of hard to get anything done.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the pond, plenty of Brits wanted out of the EU precisely because of all the bureaucratic rules from Brussels. Then they discovered that adherence to those regulations brought enormous benefits like borderless travel, agricultural subsidies, and the option to retire on the coast of Spain.

Here, too, the EU bureaucracy may well grind down British resistance until, in the end, the Brexit they get is not the Brexit they signed up for.

Two cheers for democracy, novelist E.M. Forster once wrote: “one because it admits variety and two because it permits criticism. Two cheers are quite enough: there is no occasion to give three.” I feel the same way about bureaucracy: it can tie up would-be dictators and regulate the functioning of large, diverse bodies. If bureaucrats can help rewind the mistakes of 2016, they deserve two cheers (but no more).

To get that third cheer, it’s necessary to address the grievances that led to those two votes in the first place. Economic change has to work for the people, not the plutocrats. And politicians have to represent the interests of the population, not just wealthy donors. When that happens, we can finally hit rewind on 2016, and then, finally, move forward into a more equitable and sustainable future.

World Beat, Foreign Policy In Focus, June 14, 2017